Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.87 – 135.49

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.8 ±11.6

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 27.41Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 60.44Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 130.02Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.7 ±9.8

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 27.63Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 57.51Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 50.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9706, 1351, 5817

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 1351, 5817

Auto

47.5 23%

Teleop

134.3 65%

Endgame

24.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5700, 971, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5700, 971, 766

Auto

22.5 18%

Teleop

75.4 59%

Endgame

29.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.9pts

Blue projected score135.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.4
Score range: 93–260
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 234.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.8Season APEX499.7

47.5Auto22.5

134.3Teleop75.4

24.3Endgame29.8

32Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	27
teleop	31	163
endgame	21	41
foul	0	0
total	79	231

Result

Final score

79 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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