Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

489.07 – 26.04

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

422 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 71 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 742.9 ±9.8

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 322.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 120.91Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 45.91Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.2 ±12.1

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 47.52Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX -3.32Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -18.16Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 254, 3970, 3925

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 254, 3970, 3925

Auto

89.9 19%

Teleop

282.5 60%

Endgame

99.9 21%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9584, 2367, 8768

/ 100 compat

Projected

26 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9584, 2367, 8768

Auto

2.9 17%

Teleop

4.8 29%

Endgame

9.1 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score489.1pts

Blue projected score26pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 463
Score range: -16–531
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 233.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

742.9Season APEX196.2

89.9Auto2.9

282.5Teleop4.8

99.9Endgame9.1

15Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	20
teleop	200	55
endgame	158	21
foul	45	5
total	422	101

Result

Final score

422 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 71 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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