Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.79 – 229.1

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

271 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430 ±11.7

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 46.51Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 168.56Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 36.72Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.9 ±10.4

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 61.06Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 126.49Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 41.55Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4765, 973, 6657

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4765, 973, 6657

Auto

65.8 28%

Teleop

112.9 48%

Endgame

55.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8793, 1388, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8793, 1388, 6305

Auto

40.8 18%

Teleop

123.5 53%

Endgame

68.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score251.8pts

Blue projected score229.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 187–294
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 232.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430Season APEX433.9

65.8Auto40.8

112.9Teleop123.5

55.4Endgame68.6

12Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	50
teleop	142	142
endgame	44	85
foul	5	0
total	271	277

Result

Final score

271 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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