Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.48 – 134.41

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.2 ±11.7

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 310.63Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 55.03Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 13.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.4 ±14.4

4643Butte Built Bots

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -17.42Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 119.27Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 32.56Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1323, 100, 11296

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1323, 100, 11296

Auto

67.4 18%

Teleop

212.2 58%

Endgame

88.6 24%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4643, 840, 6822

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4643, 840, 6822

Auto

22.7 16%

Teleop

68.8 50%

Endgame

47.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.76 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score379.5pts

Blue projected score134.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 245.1
Score range: 92–421
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 232.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.2Season APEX239.4

67.4Auto22.7

212.2Teleop68.8

88.6Endgame47.2

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	20
teleop	234	20
endgame	87	27
foul	5	5
total	406	72

Result

Final score

406 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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