Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.68 – 180.14

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 56.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229 ±12.2

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 11.43Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 69.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 52.47Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±12.2

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 135.03Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 23.05Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 22.06Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9706, 766, 4765

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 766, 4765

Auto

18.6 15%

Teleop

66.7 55%

Endgame

35.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3970, 11296, 6657

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3970, 11296, 6657

Auto

39.2 22%

Teleop

83.2 48%

Endgame

52.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.7pts

Blue projected score180.1pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.5
Score range: 89–225
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 250.3.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229Season APEX314.7

18.6Auto39.2

66.7Teleop83.2

35.1Endgame52.6

89Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	27
teleop	39	150
endgame	18	77
foul	10	5
total	99	259

Result

Final score

99 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 56.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.