Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.02 – 158.65

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322 ±11

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 41.36Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -22.82Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 38.48Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 412.7 ±11.1

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 63.97Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 60.16Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 34.52Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3925, 8768, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 8768, 114

Auto

22.8 46%

Teleop

21.5 43%

Endgame

5.3 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1351, 971, 9706

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1351, 971, 9706

Auto

31.7 22%

Teleop

83.9 59%

Endgame

27.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score158.7pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.6
Score range: 15–201
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 235.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322Season APEX412.7

22.8Auto31.7

21.5Teleop83.9

5.3Endgame27.2

0Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	23
teleop	47	88
endgame	3	1
foul	20	10
total	101	122

Result

Final score

101 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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