Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.56 – 137.03

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 108.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±11

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 16.22Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 28.65Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 115.69Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466 ±11

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 59.62Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 35.63Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 41.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5700, 6657, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5700, 6657, 1388

Auto

39.9 25%

Teleop

78.1 50%

Endgame

39.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1671, 9584, 766

/ 100 compat

Projected

137 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1671, 9584, 766

Auto

16.7 13%

Teleop

76.9 59%

Endgame

36.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.6pts

Blue projected score137pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.5
Score range: 95–203
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 514 vs event baseline 235.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.1Season APEX466

39.9Auto16.7

78.1Teleop76.9

39.4Endgame36.6

24Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	37
teleop	155	132
endgame	60	43
foul	0	35
total	267	247

Result

Final score

267 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 108.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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