Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

307.7 – 444.92

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

269 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.2 ±11

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 119.99Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 125.79Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 61.92Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 613.8 ±11.2

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 322.87Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 55.33Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 66.72Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 840, 3970, 100

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 840, 3970, 100

Auto

58.7 19%

Teleop

175.8 57%

Endgame

74.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1323, 4765, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1323, 4765, 8793

Auto

85.8 19%

Teleop

245.5 55%

Endgame

112.6 25%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score307.7pts

Blue projected score444.9pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.2
Score range: 266–487
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 615 vs event baseline 235.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.2Season APEX613.8

58.7Auto85.8

175.8Teleop245.5

74.3Endgame112.6

11Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	75
teleop	133	226
endgame	95	40
foul	0	5
total	269	346

Result

Final score

269 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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