Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.17 – 139.96

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.9 ±11

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 32.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 36.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 24.97Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 486 ±10.5

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 162.24Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX 4.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -26.61Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 766, 114, 6822

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 766, 114, 6822

Auto

21.7 25%

Teleop

25.5 29%

Endgame

40.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 973, 5700, 8768

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 5700, 8768

Auto

35.2 27%

Teleop

62.0 48%

Endgame

31.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.2pts

Blue projected score140pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.8
Score range: 51–183
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 237.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.9Season APEX486

21.7Auto35.2

25.5Teleop62

40.4Endgame31.6

43Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	12
teleop	79	94
endgame	19	60
foul	10	20
total	146	186

Result

Final score

146 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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