Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.89 – 205.48

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.7 ±11.6

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 115.33Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 14.99Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 19.57Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.5 ±11.7

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 20Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 164.92Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 20.56Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 840, 6657, 2367

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 840, 6657, 2367

Auto

19.8 14%

Teleop

78.9 55%

Endgame

43.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11296, 973, 9706

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11296, 973, 9706

Auto

49.2 26%

Teleop

94.7 50%

Endgame

45.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score149.9pts

Blue projected score205.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.6
Score range: 109–246
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 228.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.7Season APEX434.5

19.8Auto49.2

78.9Teleop94.7

43.8Endgame45.2

53Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	22
teleop	112	165
endgame	30	67
foul	0	50
total	191	304

Result

Final score

191 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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