Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

395.77 – 167.63

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 83.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 614.7 ±10.5

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 57.39Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 9.43Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 328.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.7 ±11

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 49.03Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 90.1Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 28.5Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 766, 8768, 254

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 766, 8768, 254

Auto

58.9 15%

Teleop

227.9 59%

Endgame

98.7 26%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 114, 1388, 100

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 114, 1388, 100

Auto

60.7 37%

Teleop

65.6 40%

Endgame

36.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score395.8pts

Blue projected score167.6pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 228.1
Score range: 127–437
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 228.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

614.7Season APEX458.7

58.9Auto60.7

227.9Teleop65.6

98.7Endgame36.3

47Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	61
teleop	169	106
endgame	72	46
foul	10	0
total	274	213

Result

Final score

274 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 83.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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