Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

97.17 – 95.23

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.3 ±14.4

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 55.87Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4643Butte Built Bots

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -17.69Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 58.99Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.7 ±11.6

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -8.71Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 60.94Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 43Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9584, 4643, 8793

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9584, 4643, 8793

Auto

26.4 27%

Teleop

46.4 48%

Endgame

24.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8768, 1671, 1351

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8768, 1671, 1351

Auto

18.8 21%

Teleop

49.0 54%

Endgame

22.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.2pts

Blue projected score95.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.9
Score range: 50–142
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 250.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.3Season APEX415.7

26.4Auto18.8

46.4Teleop49

24.5Endgame22.4

3Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	78	13
endgame	8	19
foul	10	0
total	114	47

Result

Final score

114 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 32.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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