Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.54 – 153.45

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 102 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.6 ±13.9

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 70.52Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4643Butte Built Bots

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -8.27Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 36.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.5 ±11.7

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 145.25Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 17.23Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5700SOTA Cyberdragons

Season APEX 104.9Event APEX -9.03Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8793, 4643, 3925

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8793, 4643, 3925

Auto

41.3 45%

Teleop

48.9 53%

Endgame

2.1 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5817, 4765, 5700

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5817, 4765, 5700

Auto

51.1 33%

Teleop

88.7 57%

Endgame

16.0 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.5pts

Blue projected score153.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.9
Score range: 58–194
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 229.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.6Season APEX329.5

41.3Auto51.1

48.9Teleop88.7

2.1Endgame16

8Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	70
teleop	43	161
endgame	0	87
foul	0	0
total	59	318

Result

Final score

59 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 102 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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