Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.61 – 195.56

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 866.2 ±9.3

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 35.59Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 162.28Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 26.74Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.1 ±11.6

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 51.69Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 25.13Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 118.74Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 971, 973, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 971, 973, 1671

Auto

61.0 28%

Teleop

103.8 47%

Endgame

55.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9584, 9706, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9584, 9706, 840

Auto

15.2 8%

Teleop

118.7 64%

Endgame

51.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score224.6pts

Blue projected score195.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.1
Score range: 155–266
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 230.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

866.2Season APEX285.1

61Auto15.2

103.8Teleop118.7

55.6Endgame51.6

0Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	19
teleop	144	105
endgame	23	34
foul	40	5
total	283	163

Result

Final score

283 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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