Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

454.48 – 145.05

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

509 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 668.6 ±10.5

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 137.08Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 18.63Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 298.77Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.2 ±11.6

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 54.63Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 31.86Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1351TKO

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 58.56Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3970, 6822, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.5 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3970, 6822, 1323

Auto

78.1 18%

Teleop

244.5 56%

Endgame

117.2 27%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6305, 2367, 1351

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6305, 2367, 1351

Auto

16.1 13%

Teleop

75.8 60%

Endgame

34.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.78 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score454.5pts

Blue projected score145.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 309.4
Score range: 104–495
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 641 vs event baseline 226.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

668.6Season APEX222.2

78.1Auto16.1

244.5Teleop75.8

117.2Endgame34.9

60Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	20
teleop	290	66
endgame	125	41
foul	5	5
total	509	132

Result

Final score

509 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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