Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.96 – 262.35

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.1 ±13.9

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 32.57Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4643Butte Built Bots

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -21.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 78.68Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±11.6

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 58.6Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 35.58Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 168.17Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 766, 4643, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 766, 4643, 1388

Auto

42.1 55%

Teleop

48.7 63%

Endgame

-13.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 100, 6657, 5817

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 100, 6657, 5817

Auto

49.9 19%

Teleop

138.0 54%

Endgame

68.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score262.4pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -172.4
Score range: 49–303
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 229.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.1Season APEX296.7

42.1Auto49.9

48.7Teleop138

-13.9Endgame68.5

42Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	55
teleop	91	60
endgame	38	12
foul	0	15
total	177	142

Result

Final score

177 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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