Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.65 – 206.81

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.5 ±11.6

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 48.9Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 30.53Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 44.22Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.7 ±11

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 17.75Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 51.24Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 137.82Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6305, 9706, 9584

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6305, 9706, 9584

Auto

4.0 3%

Teleop

79.8 65%

Endgame

39.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6822, 114, 3970

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6822, 114, 3970

Auto

46.3 24%

Teleop

79.3 41%

Endgame

69.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.7pts

Blue projected score206.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.2
Score range: 82–249
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 235.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.5Season APEX411.7

4Auto46.3

79.8Teleop79.3

39.2Endgame69.5

103Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	75
teleop	64	88
endgame	46	50
foul	30	5
total	158	218

Result

Final score

158 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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