Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.86 – 175.46

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481 ±10.5

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 60.38Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 77.67Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 63.81Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.8 ±11

100The Wildhats

Season APEX 100.1Event APEX 68.78Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 30.01Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 76.67Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9706, 114, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9706, 114, 971

Auto

39.1 20%

Teleop

98.4 51%

Endgame

53.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 100, 766, 6305

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 100, 766, 6305

Auto

21.7 13%

Teleop

92.2 55%

Endgame

53.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.9pts

Blue projected score175.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.4
Score range: 134–243
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 227.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481Season APEX305.8

39.1Auto21.7

98.4Teleop92.2

53.7Endgame53.4

63Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	16
teleop	9	71
endgame	13	60
foul	0	15
total	58	162

Result

Final score

58 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 78.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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