Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.76 – 201.98

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.2 ±12.7

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 36.69Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX -0.13Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 26.2Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 492.9 ±11.7

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 5.96Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 164.99Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 31.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9584, 4765, 6822

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9584, 4765, 6822

Auto

4.8 8%

Teleop

5.5 10%

Endgame

46.9 82%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1671, 5817, 11296

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1671, 5817, 11296

Auto

38.3 19%

Teleop

103.8 51%

Endgame

60.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.8pts

Blue projected score202pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -139.2
Score range: 22–243
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 229.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.2Season APEX492.9

4.8Auto38.3

5.5Teleop103.8

46.9Endgame60.6

140Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	57
teleop	47	154
endgame	53	40
foul	0	0
total	120	251

Result

Final score

120 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 53.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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