Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

301.66 – 351.47

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

357 – 522

Prediction correct · off by 112.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.3 ±14

4643Butte Built Bots

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -23.61Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 280.97Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 44.3Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 830.6 ±9.3

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 103.39Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 256.13Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX -8.05Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4643, 254, 6657

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4643, 254, 6657

Auto

41.7 14%

Teleop

180.4 61%

Endgame

72.0 24%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 973, 1323, 3925

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 973, 1323, 3925

Auto

87.1 25%

Teleop

175.8 51%

Endgame

79.4 23%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score301.7pts

Blue projected score351.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.8
Score range: 263–390
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 879 vs event baseline 217.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.3Season APEX830.6

41.7Auto87.1

180.4Teleop175.8

72Endgame79.4

61Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	130
teleop	175	293
endgame	77	69
foul	15	30
total	357	522

Result

Final score

357 – 522

Prediction correct · off by 112.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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