Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.31 – 293.08

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.1 ±12.2

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 3.77Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 119.83Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX -15.29Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.1 ±10.4

5817Uni-Rex

Season APEX 153.8Event APEX 170.3Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 22.04Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 100.74Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4765, 6305, 8768

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4765, 6305, 8768

Auto

27.4 23%

Teleop

56.2 47%

Endgame

35.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5817, 766, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5817, 766, 840

Auto

45.6 16%

Teleop

173.4 61%

Endgame

64.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.8 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.3pts

Blue projected score293.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -184.8
Score range: 68–333
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 221.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.1Season APEX418.1

27.4Auto45.6

56.2Teleop173.4

35.3Endgame64.9

113Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	46
teleop	23	195
endgame	31	51
foul	0	0
total	73	292

Result

Final score

73 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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