Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

489.68 – 27.05

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 111.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 604.1 ±10.5

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 91.98Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 127.6Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 270.1Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.9 ±12.2

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX -44.51Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 28.8Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 42.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6657, 114, 1323

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.7 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6657, 114, 1323

Auto

74.4 16%

Teleop

283.9 59%

Endgame

121.5 25%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3925, 9584, 11296

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 9584, 11296

Auto

5.6 24%

Teleop

10.8 45%

Endgame

7.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.75 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score489.7pts

Blue projected score27.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 462.6
Score range: -13–530
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 222.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

604.1Season APEX263.9

74.4Auto5.6

283.9Teleop10.8

121.5Endgame7.4

24Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	10
teleop	154	43
endgame	88	33
foul	15	10
total	335	96

Result

Final score

335 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 111.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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