Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

173.58 – 382.25

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445.7 ±11

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 66.38Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8793Pumpkin Bots

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 101.85Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX 5.35Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.2 ±9.9

254The Cheesy Poofs

Season APEX 437.9Event APEX 267.53Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6822THE SHISHKABOTS

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 50.88Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 63.84Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2367, 8793, 1671

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2367, 8793, 1671

Auto

64.0 40%

Teleop

82.0 51%

Endgame

14.2 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 254, 6822, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 254, 6822, 971

Auto

78.1 21%

Teleop

191.5 52%

Endgame

101.4 27%

Strengths

· 254 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.6pts

Blue projected score382.3pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -208.7
Score range: 133–423
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 491 vs event baseline 227.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445.7Season APEX780.2

64Auto78.1

82Teleop191.5

14.2Endgame101.4

42Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	28
teleop	50	209
endgame	38	128
foul	0	15
total	111	380

Result

Final score

111 – 380

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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