Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.36 – 141.68

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 77 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.9 ±10.4

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX -34Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6305Stable Circuits

Season APEX 93.6Event APEX 150.06Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

840Aragon Robotics Team

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 103.3Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.2 ±12.8

4765PWRUP

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 29.68Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11296Merced Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 72Event APEX 62.59Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 49.41Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3925, 6305, 840

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3925, 6305, 840

Auto

16.4 8%

Teleop

122.2 59%

Endgame

69.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4765, 11296, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4765, 11296, 1388

Auto

24.9 18%

Teleop

72.4 53%

Endgame

38.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.4pts

Blue projected score141.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.7
Score range: 99–262
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 237.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.9Season APEX349.2

16.4Auto24.9

122.2Teleop72.4

69.7Endgame38.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	38
teleop	110	1
endgame	17	15
foul	0	0
total	153	54

Result

Final score

153 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 77 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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