Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.02 – 76.26

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 71.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.4 ±14.8

8768CTEC Titans

Season APEX 64.7Event APEX 0.72Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9706R^3 (Redwood Ranger Robotics)

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 77.86Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4643Butte Built Bots

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 11.44Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.7 ±11.6

766M-A Bears

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX -1.21Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9584Spartan Squared

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 1.91Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6657Arborbotics

Season APEX 42.8Event APEX 75.56Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8768, 9706, 4643

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8768, 9706, 4643

Auto

-0.9 0%

Teleop

77.2 92%

Endgame

7.9 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 766, 9584, 6657

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 766, 9584, 6657

Auto

8.3 11%

Teleop

35.7 49%

Endgame

28.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score76.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.8
Score range: 31–135
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 251.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.4Season APEX241.7

-0.9Auto8.3

77.2Teleop35.7

7.9Endgame28.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	19
teleop	5	81
endgame	0	29
foul	0	15
total	14	144

Result

Final score

14 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 71.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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