Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

354.21 – 191.2

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 29 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 828.4 ±9.8

1323MadTown Robotics

Season APEX 409.1Event APEX 248.18Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1671Buchanan Bird Brains

Season APEX 267.1Event APEX -16.79Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

114Eaglestrike

Season APEX 152.2Event APEX 122.82Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 527.3 ±10.5

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 62.24Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3970Duncan Dynamics

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 74.34Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2367Lancer Robotics

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 54.62Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1323, 1671, 114

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1323, 1671, 114

Auto

61.5 18%

Teleop

187.9 55%

Endgame

91.6 27%

Strengths

· 1323 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 971, 3970, 2367

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 971, 3970, 2367

Auto

51.4 29%

Teleop

91.5 52%

Endgame

31.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score354.2pts

Blue projected score191.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample134alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163
Score range: 146–399
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 247.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

828.4Season APEX527.3

61.5Auto51.4

187.9Teleop91.5

91.6Endgame31.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	61
teleop	215	71
endgame	85	40
foul	5	10
total	403	182

Result

Final score

403 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 29 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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