Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.26 – 237.45

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 57.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.2 ±11

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 20.57Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 126.22Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 107.47Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±11.6

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 25.53Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 96.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 115.1Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 751, 8048, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 751, 8048, 7667

Auto

48.5 20%

Teleop

137.9 56%

Endgame

59.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2141, 6619, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2141, 6619, 2135

Auto

45.4 19%

Teleop

143.1 61%

Endgame

44.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.3pts

Blue projected score237.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.8
Score range: 210–281
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 432 vs event baseline 149.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.2Season APEX323.5

48.5Auto45.4

137.9Teleop143.1

59.2Endgame44.8

36Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	39
teleop	81	110
endgame	35	116
foul	5	0
total	167	265

Result

Final score

167 – 265

Prediction missed · off by 57.4 pts

Match videos

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