Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.88 – 134.33

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 61.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±12.1

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 49.95Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 57.09Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 48.84Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.8 ±10.4

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 15.53Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 62.03Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 56.77Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5458, 1458, 8016

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5458, 1458, 8016

Auto

32.0 21%

Teleop

74.0 48%

Endgame

46.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6662, 253, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6662, 253, 1072

Auto

32.1 25%

Teleop

60.9 48%

Endgame

34.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.9pts

Blue projected score134.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.5
Score range: 107–183
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.9Season APEX334.8

32Auto32.1

74Teleop60.9

46.8Endgame34.7

16Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	49
teleop	97	117
endgame	50	58
foul	0	0
total	190	224

Result

Final score

190 – 224

Prediction missed · off by 61.9 pts

Match videos

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