Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
89.52 – 166.48
28%72%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
133 – 124
Prediction missed · off by 43 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 167.6 ±12.7
Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 40.45Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 20.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 28.37Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271 ±13.3
Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 33.11Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 34.52Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 98.85Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5274, 8404, 852
48
/ 100 compatProjected
89.5 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 5274, 8404, 852
Auto
21.4 24%
Teleop
39.8 45%
Endgame
28.1 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3189, 3669, 4159
69
/ 100 compatProjected
166.5 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 3189, 3669, 4159
Auto
31.6 19%
Teleop
92.6 56%
Endgame
42.3 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.06
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score89.5pts
Blue projected score166.5pts
Red win probability28%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -77
- Score range
- 63–193
- Upset likelihood
- 28%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
167.6Season APEX271
21.4Auto31.6
39.8Teleop92.6
28.1Endgame42.3
44Consistency49
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 30 |
| teleop | 79 | 59 |
| endgame | 26 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 133 | 124 |
Result
Final score
133 – 124
Prediction missed · off by 43 pts
Match videos
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