Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

250.77 – 126.36

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±11.6

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 30.36Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 101.34Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 119.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.8 ±10.4

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 13.3Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 59.22Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 53.84Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2141, 6619, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2141, 6619, 2135

Auto

47.2 19%

Teleop

153.1 62%

Endgame

45.4 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6662, 253, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6662, 253, 1072

Auto

31.3 27%

Teleop

56.9 48%

Endgame

29.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score250.8pts

Blue projected score126.4pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.4
Score range: 99–278
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 147.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.5Season APEX334.8

47.2Auto31.3

153.1Teleop56.9

45.4Endgame29.8

21Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	35
teleop	103	76
endgame	43	53
foul	0	0
total	185	164

Result

Final score

185 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 51.7 pts