Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.01 – 137.61

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.2 ±11

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 21.9Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 129.17Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7667OtterBots

Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 109.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±12.1

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 43.87Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 50.73Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 43.01Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 751, 8048, 7667

/ 100 compat

Projected

261 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 751, 8048, 7667

Auto

49.2 20%

Teleop

140.0 56%

Endgame

61.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5458, 1458, 8016

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5458, 1458, 8016

Auto

28.7 21%

Teleop

72.1 52%

Endgame

38.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score261pts

Blue projected score137.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.4
Score range: 112–287
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.2Season APEX226.9

49.2Auto28.7

140Teleop72.1

61Endgame38.3

28Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	45
teleop	124	79
endgame	58	80
foul	0	20
total	228	224

Result

Final score

228 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 pts

Match videos

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