Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
240.77 – 234.54
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
265 – 285
Prediction missed · off by 37.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±11.6
Season APEX 52Event APEX 27.07Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 97.79Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 151Event APEX 115.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.2 ±11
Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 13.81Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 118.73Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 102Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2141, 6619, 2135
83
/ 100 compatProjected
240.8 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 2141, 6619, 2135
Auto
42.0 18%
Teleop
134.4 57%
Endgame
61.3 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 751, 8048, 7667
86
/ 100 compatProjected
234.5 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 751, 8048, 7667
Auto
49.3 22%
Teleop
123.2 54%
Endgame
55.8 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.49
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score240.8pts
Blue projected score234.5pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 6.2
- Score range
- 208–268
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
323.5Season APEX400.2
42Auto49.3
134.4Teleop123.2
61.3Endgame55.8
38Consistency54
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 52 | 52 |
| teleop | 120 | 146 |
| endgame | 78 | 72 |
| foul | 15 | 15 |
| total | 265 | 285 |
Result
Final score
265 – 285
Prediction missed · off by 37.3 pts
Match videos
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