Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
238.61 – 149.57
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
206 – 156
Prediction correct · off by 19.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.2 ±11
Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 15.22Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 120.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 164.9Event APEX 103.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.8 ±10.4
Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 20.08Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 108Event APEX 66.65Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 62.84Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 751, 8048, 7667
85
/ 100 compatProjected
238.6 pts
~2.0 RP (district)
Teams: 751, 8048, 7667
Auto
48.1 21%
Teleop
127.7 55%
Endgame
55.8 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6662, 253, 1072
66
/ 100 compatProjected
149.6 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 6662, 253, 1072
Auto
35.9 25%
Teleop
71.0 50%
Endgame
35.4 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.96
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score238.6pts
Blue projected score149.6pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 42%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 89
- Score range
- 123–266
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
400.2Season APEX334.8
48.1Auto35.9
127.7Teleop71
55.8Endgame35.4
48Consistency30
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 59 | 61 |
| teleop | 91 | 53 |
| endgame | 56 | 42 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 206 | 156 |
Result
Final score
206 – 156
Prediction correct · off by 19.5 pts
Match videos
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