Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.24 – 135.84

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.4 ±12.8

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 56.86Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 29.38Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 46Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.5 ±12.2

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 23.64Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 56.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 55.34Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10212, 4159, 253

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10212, 4159, 253

Auto

30.8 22%

Teleop

84.5 62%

Endgame

21.9 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11243, 8048, 2141

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11243, 8048, 2141

Auto

35.1 26%

Teleop

79.0 58%

Endgame

21.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.2pts

Blue projected score135.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.6
Score range: 107–161
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 341 vs event baseline 138.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.4Season APEX296.5

30.8Auto35.1

84.5Teleop79

21.9Endgame21.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	44
teleop	71	90
endgame	41	26
foul	0	45
total	136	205

Result

Final score

136 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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