Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.58 – 78.68

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.1 ±11.6

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 9.5Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 24.6Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 60.48Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.2 ±12.7

3189Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 35.96Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 12.48Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 30.24Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5924, 852, 253

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5924, 852, 253

Auto

27.0 28%

Teleop

52.7 56%

Endgame

15.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3189, 3482, 2141

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3189, 3482, 2141

Auto

20.9 28%

Teleop

37.2 50%

Endgame

16.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.6pts

Blue projected score78.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.9
Score range: 53–121
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 143.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.1Season APEX179.2

27Auto20.9

52.7Teleop37.2

15.1Endgame16

21Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	55	51
endgame	41	30
foul	0	0
total	113	104

Result

Final score

113 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 21.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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