Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.42 – 123.73

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.1 ±11.6

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 67.84Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 6.58Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 18Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±12.4

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 4.8Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 4.58Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 114.35Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7137, 11463, 751

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7137, 11463, 751

Auto

13.2 15%

Teleop

42.6 47%

Endgame

34.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5430, 11243, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5430, 11243, 8

Auto

32.0 27%

Teleop

63.9 54%

Endgame

23.2 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.4pts

Blue projected score123.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.3
Score range: 66–150
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 143.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.1Season APEX394.3

13.2Auto32

42.6Teleop63.9

34.4Endgame23.2

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	50
teleop	57	36
endgame	31	0
foul	45	0
total	157	86

Result

Final score

157 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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