Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.81 – 75.98

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.4 ±12.8

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 14.95Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 62.25Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 17.61Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.3 ±12.2

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 63.45Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 2.14Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

751barn2robotics

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 10.39Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3482, 1967, 7777

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3482, 1967, 7777

Auto

13.8 15%

Teleop

55.7 62%

Endgame

21.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1072, 5430, 751

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1072, 5430, 751

Auto

21.3 30%

Teleop

24.3 34%

Endgame

26.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.8pts

Blue projected score76pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.8
Score range: 48–123
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 134 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.4Season APEX221.3

13.8Auto21.3

55.7Teleop24.3

21Endgame26

22Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	27
teleop	38	42
endgame	1	15
foul	0	0
total	50	84

Result

Final score

50 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 26.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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