Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.59 – 135.3

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.1 ±12.2

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 21.81Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 31.51Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 119.27Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±13.9

8404SKYWALKERS

Season APEX 41.1Event APEX 19.47Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 101.5Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 14.33Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 852, 8840, 2135

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 852, 8840, 2135

Auto

30.8 18%

Teleop

103.9 60%

Endgame

37.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8404, 4159, 9125

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8404, 4159, 9125

Auto

25.4 20%

Teleop

69.5 54%

Endgame

34.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score172.6pts

Blue projected score135.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.3
Score range: 109–199
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.1Season APEX222.8

30.8Auto25.4

103.9Teleop69.5

37.8Endgame34.9

45Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	19
teleop	95	27
endgame	43	2
foul	0	0
total	172	48

Result

Final score

172 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree