Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

73.23 – 29.3

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±13.3

5728MC2

Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 16.01Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 47.58Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 9.64Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178 ±12.8

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 1.07Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 10.75Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 17.48Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5728, 1458, 3482

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5728, 1458, 3482

Auto

11.1 18%

Teleop

29.4 47%

Endgame

21.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11243, 6662, 9114

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11243, 6662, 9114

Auto

18.9 76%

Teleop

-9.9 0%

Endgame

16.0 64%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.2pts

Blue projected score29.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 3–99
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 146.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

165.7Season APEX178

11.1Auto18.9

29.4Teleop-9.9

21.6Endgame16

8Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	35	21
endgame	34	18
foul	0	0
total	82	53

Result

Final score

82 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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