Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.5 – 154.65

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 98.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.6 ±12.8

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 51.25Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4159CardinalBotics

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 99.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 17.98Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.1 ±11.2

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 40.27Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 98.99Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 15.39Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1072, 4159, 2288

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1072, 4159, 2288

Auto

30.7 19%

Teleop

98.6 62%

Endgame

29.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 253, 8, 8840

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 253, 8, 8840

Auto

38.0 25%

Teleop

90.4 60%

Endgame

23.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.5pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.8
Score range: 129–195
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.6Season APEX470.1

30.7Auto38

98.6Teleop90.4

29.5Endgame23.2

26Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	56
teleop	86	203
endgame	55	58
foul	20	15
total	189	332

Result

Final score

189 – 332

Prediction missed · off by 98.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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