Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.99 – 231.43

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.2 ±12.2

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 114.7Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 4.38Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 3.91Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.7 ±11.6

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 43.89Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 184.23Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11463SHC Robotics

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 3.31Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2135, 10212, 5924

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2135, 10212, 5924

Auto

32.2 26%

Teleop

70.9 57%

Endgame

22.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5458, 5507, 11463

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5458, 5507, 11463

Auto

32.5 14%

Teleop

147.3 65%

Endgame

45.7 20%

Strengths

· 5507 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123pts

Blue projected score231.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.4
Score range: 97–257
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.2Season APEX432.7

32.2Auto32.5

70.9Teleop147.3

22.2Endgame45.7

20Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	64
teleop	107	163
endgame	42	54
foul	0	0
total	181	281

Result

Final score

181 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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