Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.54 – 123.06

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

123 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.9 ±10.5

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 76.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 35.73Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 114.04Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.9 ±11

6662FalconX

Season APEX 84.9Event APEX 14.68Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 32.73Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1967The Janksters

Season APEX 141.2Event APEX 75.65Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7137, 852, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7137, 852, 8

Auto

38.8 17%

Teleop

135.7 61%

Endgame

48.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6662, 5274, 1967

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6662, 5274, 1967

Auto

31.4 25%

Teleop

71.5 58%

Endgame

20.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.5pts

Blue projected score123.1pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.5
Score range: 98–252
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.9Season APEX300.9

38.8Auto31.4

135.7Teleop71.5

48.2Endgame20.9

46Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	41
teleop	48	34
endgame	36	44
foul	0	0
total	123	119

Result

Final score

123 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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