Qualification · Qualification 51
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
64.16 – 260.33
8%92%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
75 – 261
Prediction correct · off by 5.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.1 ±13.3
Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 42.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.5Event APEX 19.5Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 26Event APEX 1.76Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.7 ±12.8
Season APEX 76.1Event APEX 45.67Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 151Event APEX 112.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 101.97Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8016, 5728, 5430
41
/ 100 compatProjected
64.2 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 8016, 5728, 5430
Auto
17.0 25%
Teleop
26.6 40%
Endgame
23.7 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3669, 2135, 4159
83
/ 100 compatProjected
260.3 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 3669, 2135, 4159
Auto
48.5 19%
Teleop
153.4 60%
Endgame
55.7 22%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.68 · Blue 2.52
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score64.2pts
Blue projected score260.3pts
Red win probability8%
Event bonus sample170alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -196.2
- Score range
- 39–285
- Upset likelihood
- 8%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
146.1Season APEX331.7
17Auto48.5
26.6Teleop153.4
23.7Endgame55.7
52Consistency45
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 29 |
| teleop | 32 | 161 |
| endgame | 26 | 71 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 75 | 261 |
Result
Final score
75 – 261
Prediction correct · off by 5.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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