Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.23 – 163.86

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.9 ±12.8

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 26.09Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 6.39Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 3.75Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.5 ±12.2

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 117.15Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 28.22Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 18.49Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 701, 9125, 11243

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 701, 9125, 11243

Auto

18.3 52%

Teleop

8.2 23%

Endgame

8.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2135, 2141, 9114

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2135, 2141, 9114

Auto

30.0 18%

Teleop

81.8 50%

Endgame

51.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.2pts

Blue projected score163.9pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.6
Score range: 8–192
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.9Season APEX233.5

18.3Auto30

8.2Teleop81.8

8.5Endgame51.8

14Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	45
teleop	38	98
endgame	22	31
foul	0	0
total	75	174

Result

Final score

75 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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