Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.48 – 57.01

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 97.2 ±13.3

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 10.95Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5924Golden Gate Robotics

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 7.8Rank 25Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 22.73Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.1 ±12.8

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 9.27Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10212Circuit Bakers

Season APEX 62.8Event APEX 1.28Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 46.46Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7777, 5924, 9114

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7777, 5924, 9114

Auto

19.5 41%

Teleop

19.7 42%

Endgame

8.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8840, 10212, 1072

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8840, 10212, 1072

Auto

18.6 33%

Teleop

25.1 45%

Endgame

11.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.5pts

Blue projected score57pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.5
Score range: 15–83
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

97.2Season APEX261.1

19.5Auto18.6

19.7Teleop25.1

8.1Endgame11.9

23Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	32
teleop	7	38
endgame	12	19
foul	0	15
total	23	104

Result

Final score

23 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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