Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.31 – 155.81

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±11.7

9114Rotationaries

Season APEX 30.5Event APEX 15.66Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 107.4Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5274Wolverine Robotics

Season APEX 74.8Event APEX 32.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.4 ±12.7

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 35.02Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 21.22Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6619GravitechX

Season APEX 120.5Event APEX 99.57Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9114, 8, 5274

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9114, 8, 5274

Auto

28.2 18%

Teleop

102.4 64%

Endgame

28.9 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5458, 3482, 6619

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5458, 3482, 6619

Auto

30.0 20%

Teleop

89.4 59%

Endgame

31.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.3pts

Blue projected score155.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.5
Score range: 130–181
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411Season APEX230.4

28.2Auto30

102.4Teleop89.4

28.9Endgame31.7

40Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	16
teleop	88	79
endgame	62	40
foul	0	0
total	207	135

Result

Final score

207 – 135

Prediction missed · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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