Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.23 – 114.84

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.5 ±13.9

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 14.34Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 6.81Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2288Hydra Robotics

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 19.08Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.5 ±12.2

5430Pirate Robolution

Season APEX 26Event APEX 1.85Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 80.1Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2141Spartronics

Season APEX 52Event APEX 32.89Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7777, 9125, 2288

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7777, 9125, 2288

Auto

13.5 32%

Teleop

24.3 57%

Endgame

4.7 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5430, 7137, 2141

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5430, 7137, 2141

Auto

22.1 20%

Teleop

53.2 48%

Endgame

36.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.2pts

Blue projected score114.8pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.6
Score range: 15–140
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.5Season APEX213.5

13.5Auto22.1

24.3Teleop53.2

4.7Endgame36

35Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	19
teleop	8	82
endgame	8	33
foul	0	0
total	26	134

Result

Final score

26 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 16.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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