Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.19 – 113.04

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 375.5 ±11

8048East Palo Alto ChurroBots

Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 103.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1072Harker Robotics

Season APEX 141.9Event APEX 51.36Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 32.11Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.1 ±11.6

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 42.38Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1458Red Tie Robotics

Season APEX 81.3Event APEX 51.57Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

701RoboVikes

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX 19.09Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8048, 1072, 852

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8048, 1072, 852

Auto

40.8 24%

Teleop

97.8 59%

Endgame

28.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8016, 1458, 701

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8016, 1458, 701

Auto

29.8 26%

Teleop

58.3 51%

Endgame

26.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.2pts

Blue projected score113pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.1
Score range: 88–212
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

375.5Season APEX249.1

40.8Auto29.8

97.8Teleop58.3

28.3Endgame26.8

74Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	33
teleop	131	57
endgame	29	35
foul	0	5
total	217	130

Result

Final score

217 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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