Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.38 – 186.04

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 7.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269 ±12.8

8840Bay Robotics

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 13.18Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9125Mechanical Magicians

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 7.33Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7137Project 212

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 84.87Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332 ±11

2135Presentation Invasion

Season APEX 151Event APEX 111.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

253Boba Bots

Season APEX 108Event APEX 38.5Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5458Digital Minds

Season APEX 73Event APEX 35.83Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8840, 9125, 7137

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8840, 9125, 7137

Auto

17.7 18%

Teleop

54.9 55%

Endgame

28.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2135, 253, 5458

/ 100 compat

Projected

186 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2135, 253, 5458

Auto

30.4 17%

Teleop

107.8 59%

Endgame

43.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.4pts

Blue projected score186pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.7
Score range: 80–211
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269Season APEX332

17.7Auto30.4

54.9Teleop107.8

28.1Endgame43.5

3Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	48
teleop	46	89
endgame	32	56
foul	0	0
total	97	193

Result

Final score

97 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 7.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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