Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

180.43 – 83.4

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315 ±12.8

5507Robotic Eagles

Season APEX 215.5Event APEX 160.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11243Cyber Knights

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 6.08Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3482Arrowbotics

Season APEX 36.9Event APEX 14.08Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.6 ±12.7

852ARC Robotics

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 28.71Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8016Eco Robotics

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 41.06Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7777Septobots

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 13.63Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5507, 11243, 3482

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5507, 11243, 3482

Auto

26.1 16%

Teleop

89.4 56%

Endgame

42.8 27%

Strengths

· 5507 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 852, 8016, 7777

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 852, 8016, 7777

Auto

19.9 24%

Teleop

49.1 60%

Endgame

12.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score180.4pts

Blue projected score83.4pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97
Score range: 58–205
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 137.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315Season APEX159.6

26.1Auto19.9

89.4Teleop49.1

42.8Endgame12.8

36Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	21
teleop	136	67
endgame	27	31
foul	30	0
total	236	119

Result

Final score

236 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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